Wow. Another terrific episode. This time we saw all of the Final Four working together to convince Erik to give up immunity and believe it or not, they
succeeded. Unbelievable.
Various posters are reporting seeing promos for the finale that mention THREE Tribal Councils. Are they simply referring to the Reunion as a "tribal council" (i.e., it's misdirection) or does it mean there will be a final 2 instead of a final 3? Since only 4 remain, it sounds to me like there will be a final 2. And why, I do not know. Because the jury began with Eliza, everyone is expecting a Final 3, so what might be the reason there's a final 2? Perhaps either James or Alexis has to return to hospital. Alternatively, perhaps James is disqualified for talking at TC. That's a long shot, I'm sure but still.
Anyway, rather than dwell on poor Erik's loss of blood to the brain, let's look ahead. What are the pros and cons for each woman?
PARVATI
vidcap by Warrior
First of all, Parvati is Edgic's pick to win based on the edit. She had a great first episode in which she introduced her gameplan. Nobody else had such a good introduction. She was close to being Invisible one episode, but not quite. She's been well-tended throughout. Being subtly well-tended has been one of the best signs of a winner. Her tribe did not go to TC for the entire post-swap, pre-merge period, yet Parvati DID receive focus when her tribe won rewards. As well, she was one of the few shown giving Jonathan a sad goodbye. Clearly she wasn't angling for a jury vote at that point.
The thing I like most about Parvati is her light-hearted attitude in confessionals. If she can bring that attitude to the final TC, rather than getting defensive about her game, I can see her earning enough votes to win. I admit to being worried that she will either blow it, or be unable to convince enough people. It might be a surprise to a casual viewer if she won, but it would not be a surprise to those of us who study the editing.
The biggest obstacle appears to be the many alliances she made, so it's vital that she stress that she needed every single one. Parvati has had a fair amount of doubt on her ability to win this, including a number of jurors vowing not to vote for her, or vowing to vote for someone else. If that someone else (for example, Amanda) isn't in the Final 2 (or 3), then perhaps someone like James would vote instead for Parvati.
On the negative side is her low confessional count. It's only when compared with other winners that hers seems low. I don't feel that she's been ignored - we know what her game is, it's fairly straight-forward and she's been shown as following that gameplan. Appear to be a flirt, but in reality be working the alliances and the strategizing. I think she needs certain people to NOT be in the Final 2/3 to improve her chances. The biggest obstacle may in fact turn out to be finding a way to not piss off the two main allies who remain in the game. Parvati's best shot seems to be against Natalie, but if Nat faces the Jury and Cirie & Amanda do not, that will be a bigger pickle for Parvati to climb out of.
Another thing I'm wondering is whether Parvati will give credit where it's due (to Cirie, Amanda and Natalie as the case may be) without making it seem like those people are fully responsible. Share the blame, share the wealth kind of thing. How much strategizing did Parvati really do? Was it truly all Cirie's doing? Is Parvati going to reveal her skills at wooing people to do her bidding? She managed to make all these alliances along the way, so clearly she's able to convince people to go along with her plans.
I think the casual viewer would be surprised if Parvati won, not realizing the points in the show that were crucial for her to have had. Maybe she is the person OTHERS want to take to F2/3, because they think they can beat her! What an irony if it turned out she beat them.
I'm still hoping Parvati can win, but at this stage I reckon if I didn't have the $190 incentive, I'd be rooting for Natalie.
NATALIE
vidcap by Warrior
Obviously Natalie is the outsider to win at this stage. Just about everyone has written her off as the nobody who rounds out the final 4, just like always. She's more Darrah than Darrah. But what if... Parvati takes her to the final 2 thinking she's an easy-beat? That's when Nat turns on the charm, demonstrating how she convinced Jason and Erik to listen to her. The producers decided that we had to experience the Full Natalie Onslaught for ourselves, and so they blindside us by keeping her hidden until Finale Night. When the choice is Parvati vs. Natalie, the majority vote for Natalie. It's amazing and astounding and who would have believed it? Only in a season like this one, replete with blindsides and dupings at every turn, could it happen and the public would accept it. She totally wins them over and wins the viewers over, and she is a surprise winner! Does Natalie have what it takes to beat, for example, Parvati? It would all be in the jury presentation.
How could Nat be so hidden and still win? First of all, Natalie didn't have to really do anything to stay in the game during the early going. She wasn't a target; in fact, on several occasions she was shown as someone with whom others talked to convince her to agree to their plans. That's how she managed not to be invisible the whole time. She would appear onscreen, listening to someone else's plans. It's only in the last few episodes that she's had a key role in making the Jason and Erik blindsides work. I remember wondering how she felt so secure in making the offer of the guarantee to Jason, during the Ozzy blindside episode. Now I know that she and Parvati had become good friends, so of course by the time the tribes merged, Natalie felt as much a part of the "group" as anyone.
If Natalie were the winner, it would mean MB has gotten a new editing team
But seriously, I think it would teach us to pay attention to how the
stories are being told and to be open to working out how the pieces are fitting together. There was a point when everyone's edit seemed suspect and
"not a winner's edit." When there's an aberration (and Nat's edit from eps 1-10 is a perfect example of an aberration), question it,
look at it, don't dismiss it. That's what we'd learn. If anyone other than Parvati wins, we'd have to see what it was that we missed, what we
focused on to the exclusion of other things that weren't given enough or any weight. It could mean there's only so much "doubt" a
player's edit can take before it's the story of how that person lost.
As I said, Natalie only has a shot if she's the ultimate blindside winner. She's kept hidden to blindside the viewers, in this season of record blindsides. Maybe Natalie wins because her game was to play UTR totally and she even prevented the editors from having anything to show of her. Maybe she talked in confessionals about her sex fantasies regarding the other players, in an effort to keep herself hidden and thereby control when she would emerge as a player. Who knows? LOL that's probably too far-fetched, but the point is, she was hidden and if she won, it would be because the editors chose to keep her hidden until the end.
Chances are it's a pipe dream. It's probably going to be "the usual" and Natalie either is booted at F4, or faces the Jury only to receive one or possibly two votes.
Let's bear in mind that she did say in Episode 11 that she was only just now starting to play the game; up to then she'd been doing stuff around camp and keeping her head down. She sat out of a lot of challenges, every other one she was sitting out. So what was there for her to talk about? She was on the winningest tribe post-swap and didn't have to enter into any scheming. The little we saw of her, she's too bizarre for most people's tastes. It's a long long shot that she actually is that interesting. I am of course hoping she IS in the F2 and Parvati was right to choose her to face the Jury beside her, rather than her original best buddy, Amanda.
AMANDA
vidcap by Warrior
Amanda looks like a major threat to win. In fact, she might even be out at F4 rather than Cirie. Already Natalie has shown she'd be willing to boot Amanda, and it would not surprise me if both Cirie and Parvati wake up and realize that Amanda's stock is very high with this jury following her Ep 12 performance with the HII, and the fact that she could easily have Eliza, Ozzy and James ready to vote for her. Yes, it's true she got her hands dirty with the Alexis boot, and it seems she got some mud on herself with the Erik duping. And yet... Amanda's edit over the length of the season has serious problems. Why was she ignored for the first quarter of the season, other than to moon over Ozzy? Is that because her relationship with Ozzy is key to her being able to win? Or is it that she does face the Jury, and the Ozzy connection proves to be her downfall?
If Amanda were to face the Jury, what could come back to derail her? I'm thinking there is one major loose end that could be used to upset her carefully made plans to be upbeat and forceful in the presentation of her gameplay. And that one thing is the comment Cirie made way back when Ozzy and Alexis met up post-swap. Cirie noted that she thought Amanda's unhappiness at the time was due to jealousy. What if the point is raised during final Q&A, and Amanda's denials aren't accepted? Wouldn't that make her seem petty for going after Alexis for personal reasons? It's about all I have.
Editing-wise for Amanda, the main strikes against are that she had a weak opening episode, she was ignored for four episodes, going completely invisible in one of them. When she went on the Spa reward with Ozzy, Cirie, Ami and Erik, there was nothing about the letters from home. Usually, when the winner goes on such a reward, we hear about everyone's letters, as a way to showcase a little bonding moment with people who would be on the jury. Perhaps it was an editing decision designed to throw us off. But it's pretty strange to me that only Ami didn't make the Jury phase of the game, yet that reward focused on Ami's naked boobies. I think it's because none of those present who made it to this part of the game faces the Jury. The F2 were on Nu-Airai. Naked boobies get airtime when neither the winner nor the 2nd placegetter is present.
Lately it's been made obvious that Amanda should be kept away from facing the jury, and it's the players themselves saying it. Perhaps there's a tie at F4, and Amanda loses a fire-starting challenge to Cirie. Why would Amanda be the one involved in a tie? I could see Parvati saying she took the risk last time by being the "target" of Erik. What if things had gone awry? She could have been gone hone. So now it's Amanda's turn to take the risk.
At this point, of the four, Amanda is my least favorite. I do love what she did with the HII, but for me that's not enough to justify the win. I would rather anyone else win than her. But I'm not sorry to see her in the final 4. Each of the finalists is deserving.
CIRIE
I saved Cirie for last because she is a special case.
vidcap by Warrior
My guess on Cirie is that hers has been a respect edit for a strategic mastermind who nevertheless didn't win. She had high visibility when she didn't need to, and low visibility at the usual moments (opening ep, merge ep.) She went on two rewards that involved family and nothing was shown of either of them. Perhaps hers is an edit designed to motivate viewers to vote for her to win the America's Choice $100,000 prize. She's one of MB's favorites who most deserved to face the Jury and didn't, or faces the Jury and loses.
Cirie has had a ton of confessionals, a ton of airtime, but what connections does she have to the jury as presently formed? Few to none. Her best connections are with the people still in the game, and pretty much have been the whole way through. She's had very little Secondhand Visibility (meaning comments from other people about her): the last time she even felt threatened was way back post-swap, when Joel was talking about targeting the weak, and she knew she was in that grouping.
In addition, during the Jellyfish Lake reward, she was shown/heard talking about what she'd gotten from the experience, and how she wasn't going to be afraid of every little thing anymore.
What about the Jury? Cirie's jury connections weren't deemed vital to be shown. Now that could be because it's all about how Parvati loses the votes that should have been hers, and Cirie wins them, or it could be because Cirie doesn't make it to the end. What we have seen all season is her connection to Amanda and Parvati, and lately to Natalie. Those women are still in the game and they can't all end up on the jury, voting for her. Then again, maybe two of them can.
It's just that Cirie's actions have been shown to us, and only in the most recent episode did we see other people obviously in the know that the plans were Cirie's and that she was the one directing how the Erik dupe would happen. A lot of people are rooting for Cirie, and I think that's exactly what MB wanted to achieve. Her connection to others has been perfunctory; it's her connection to the viewer that was vital. She most deserved to face the Jury and didn't. And if I'm wrong, so be it.
.
CONCLUSION
The opportunity to establish ties between Cirie and people who are on the jury was let slip by time and again. Why is she now being shown in conjunction with Natalie? Is she a vote for Natalie, because she feels betrayed by Amanda and Parvati? Is she one of many votes for Natalie, or at least 4, maybe? I can find reasons for each of them to win or to lose. There are "obvious" votes, lucky votes, and votes provided via someone who was trying to help and ends up causing others not to vote for that person.
vidcap by Warrior
The jury presentation is key. It has always been and always will be. Know your jury and present your game in a way that will appeal to them. Know which votes are lost causes and don't throw your whole gameplan away on trying to convert a lost cause to your side. As a rule, don't apologize for playing the game. It IS a game, even if it is for a million dollars.
I would love to see a polling of the full complement of 20 players, even those not on the jury. The other players would have had the benefit of watching the show together with their experience in the game. Jeff has often informally polled the group, asking for a show of hands, but I'd like to see the results tabulated, with reasons given. It's about as likely as a Natalie win, but you never know...
Thanks for reading. Enjoy the finale, whomever you may be rooting for.
* * *
Are you also watching American Idol? Check out the AI forum here.
Check out SirLinksalot: Survivor Micronesia for more recaps & articles on this show
Various posters are reporting seeing promos for the finale that mention THREE Tribal Councils. Are they simply referring to the Reunion as a "tribal council" (i.e., it's misdirection) or does it mean there will be a final 2 instead of a final 3? Since only 4 remain, it sounds to me like there will be a final 2. And why, I do not know. Because the jury began with Eliza, everyone is expecting a Final 3, so what might be the reason there's a final 2? Perhaps either James or Alexis has to return to hospital. Alternatively, perhaps James is disqualified for talking at TC. That's a long shot, I'm sure but still.
Anyway, rather than dwell on poor Erik's loss of blood to the brain, let's look ahead. What are the pros and cons for each woman?
PARVATI
vidcap by Warrior
First of all, Parvati is Edgic's pick to win based on the edit. She had a great first episode in which she introduced her gameplan. Nobody else had such a good introduction. She was close to being Invisible one episode, but not quite. She's been well-tended throughout. Being subtly well-tended has been one of the best signs of a winner. Her tribe did not go to TC for the entire post-swap, pre-merge period, yet Parvati DID receive focus when her tribe won rewards. As well, she was one of the few shown giving Jonathan a sad goodbye. Clearly she wasn't angling for a jury vote at that point.
The thing I like most about Parvati is her light-hearted attitude in confessionals. If she can bring that attitude to the final TC, rather than getting defensive about her game, I can see her earning enough votes to win. I admit to being worried that she will either blow it, or be unable to convince enough people. It might be a surprise to a casual viewer if she won, but it would not be a surprise to those of us who study the editing.
The biggest obstacle appears to be the many alliances she made, so it's vital that she stress that she needed every single one. Parvati has had a fair amount of doubt on her ability to win this, including a number of jurors vowing not to vote for her, or vowing to vote for someone else. If that someone else (for example, Amanda) isn't in the Final 2 (or 3), then perhaps someone like James would vote instead for Parvati.
On the negative side is her low confessional count. It's only when compared with other winners that hers seems low. I don't feel that she's been ignored - we know what her game is, it's fairly straight-forward and she's been shown as following that gameplan. Appear to be a flirt, but in reality be working the alliances and the strategizing. I think she needs certain people to NOT be in the Final 2/3 to improve her chances. The biggest obstacle may in fact turn out to be finding a way to not piss off the two main allies who remain in the game. Parvati's best shot seems to be against Natalie, but if Nat faces the Jury and Cirie & Amanda do not, that will be a bigger pickle for Parvati to climb out of.
Another thing I'm wondering is whether Parvati will give credit where it's due (to Cirie, Amanda and Natalie as the case may be) without making it seem like those people are fully responsible. Share the blame, share the wealth kind of thing. How much strategizing did Parvati really do? Was it truly all Cirie's doing? Is Parvati going to reveal her skills at wooing people to do her bidding? She managed to make all these alliances along the way, so clearly she's able to convince people to go along with her plans.
I think the casual viewer would be surprised if Parvati won, not realizing the points in the show that were crucial for her to have had. Maybe she is the person OTHERS want to take to F2/3, because they think they can beat her! What an irony if it turned out she beat them.
I'm still hoping Parvati can win, but at this stage I reckon if I didn't have the $190 incentive, I'd be rooting for Natalie.
NATALIE
vidcap by Warrior
Obviously Natalie is the outsider to win at this stage. Just about everyone has written her off as the nobody who rounds out the final 4, just like always. She's more Darrah than Darrah. But what if... Parvati takes her to the final 2 thinking she's an easy-beat? That's when Nat turns on the charm, demonstrating how she convinced Jason and Erik to listen to her. The producers decided that we had to experience the Full Natalie Onslaught for ourselves, and so they blindside us by keeping her hidden until Finale Night. When the choice is Parvati vs. Natalie, the majority vote for Natalie. It's amazing and astounding and who would have believed it? Only in a season like this one, replete with blindsides and dupings at every turn, could it happen and the public would accept it. She totally wins them over and wins the viewers over, and she is a surprise winner! Does Natalie have what it takes to beat, for example, Parvati? It would all be in the jury presentation.
How could Nat be so hidden and still win? First of all, Natalie didn't have to really do anything to stay in the game during the early going. She wasn't a target; in fact, on several occasions she was shown as someone with whom others talked to convince her to agree to their plans. That's how she managed not to be invisible the whole time. She would appear onscreen, listening to someone else's plans. It's only in the last few episodes that she's had a key role in making the Jason and Erik blindsides work. I remember wondering how she felt so secure in making the offer of the guarantee to Jason, during the Ozzy blindside episode. Now I know that she and Parvati had become good friends, so of course by the time the tribes merged, Natalie felt as much a part of the "group" as anyone.
If Natalie were the winner, it would mean MB has gotten a new editing team
But seriously, I think it would teach us to pay attention to how the
stories are being told and to be open to working out how the pieces are fitting together. There was a point when everyone's edit seemed suspect and
"not a winner's edit." When there's an aberration (and Nat's edit from eps 1-10 is a perfect example of an aberration), question it,
look at it, don't dismiss it. That's what we'd learn. If anyone other than Parvati wins, we'd have to see what it was that we missed, what we
focused on to the exclusion of other things that weren't given enough or any weight. It could mean there's only so much "doubt" a
player's edit can take before it's the story of how that person lost.
As I said, Natalie only has a shot if she's the ultimate blindside winner. She's kept hidden to blindside the viewers, in this season of record blindsides. Maybe Natalie wins because her game was to play UTR totally and she even prevented the editors from having anything to show of her. Maybe she talked in confessionals about her sex fantasies regarding the other players, in an effort to keep herself hidden and thereby control when she would emerge as a player. Who knows? LOL that's probably too far-fetched, but the point is, she was hidden and if she won, it would be because the editors chose to keep her hidden until the end.
Chances are it's a pipe dream. It's probably going to be "the usual" and Natalie either is booted at F4, or faces the Jury only to receive one or possibly two votes.
Let's bear in mind that she did say in Episode 11 that she was only just now starting to play the game; up to then she'd been doing stuff around camp and keeping her head down. She sat out of a lot of challenges, every other one she was sitting out. So what was there for her to talk about? She was on the winningest tribe post-swap and didn't have to enter into any scheming. The little we saw of her, she's too bizarre for most people's tastes. It's a long long shot that she actually is that interesting. I am of course hoping she IS in the F2 and Parvati was right to choose her to face the Jury beside her, rather than her original best buddy, Amanda.
AMANDA
vidcap by Warrior
Amanda looks like a major threat to win. In fact, she might even be out at F4 rather than Cirie. Already Natalie has shown she'd be willing to boot Amanda, and it would not surprise me if both Cirie and Parvati wake up and realize that Amanda's stock is very high with this jury following her Ep 12 performance with the HII, and the fact that she could easily have Eliza, Ozzy and James ready to vote for her. Yes, it's true she got her hands dirty with the Alexis boot, and it seems she got some mud on herself with the Erik duping. And yet... Amanda's edit over the length of the season has serious problems. Why was she ignored for the first quarter of the season, other than to moon over Ozzy? Is that because her relationship with Ozzy is key to her being able to win? Or is it that she does face the Jury, and the Ozzy connection proves to be her downfall?
If Amanda were to face the Jury, what could come back to derail her? I'm thinking there is one major loose end that could be used to upset her carefully made plans to be upbeat and forceful in the presentation of her gameplay. And that one thing is the comment Cirie made way back when Ozzy and Alexis met up post-swap. Cirie noted that she thought Amanda's unhappiness at the time was due to jealousy. What if the point is raised during final Q&A, and Amanda's denials aren't accepted? Wouldn't that make her seem petty for going after Alexis for personal reasons? It's about all I have.
Editing-wise for Amanda, the main strikes against are that she had a weak opening episode, she was ignored for four episodes, going completely invisible in one of them. When she went on the Spa reward with Ozzy, Cirie, Ami and Erik, there was nothing about the letters from home. Usually, when the winner goes on such a reward, we hear about everyone's letters, as a way to showcase a little bonding moment with people who would be on the jury. Perhaps it was an editing decision designed to throw us off. But it's pretty strange to me that only Ami didn't make the Jury phase of the game, yet that reward focused on Ami's naked boobies. I think it's because none of those present who made it to this part of the game faces the Jury. The F2 were on Nu-Airai. Naked boobies get airtime when neither the winner nor the 2nd placegetter is present.
Lately it's been made obvious that Amanda should be kept away from facing the jury, and it's the players themselves saying it. Perhaps there's a tie at F4, and Amanda loses a fire-starting challenge to Cirie. Why would Amanda be the one involved in a tie? I could see Parvati saying she took the risk last time by being the "target" of Erik. What if things had gone awry? She could have been gone hone. So now it's Amanda's turn to take the risk.
At this point, of the four, Amanda is my least favorite. I do love what she did with the HII, but for me that's not enough to justify the win. I would rather anyone else win than her. But I'm not sorry to see her in the final 4. Each of the finalists is deserving.
CIRIE
I saved Cirie for last because she is a special case.
vidcap by Warrior
My guess on Cirie is that hers has been a respect edit for a strategic mastermind who nevertheless didn't win. She had high visibility when she didn't need to, and low visibility at the usual moments (opening ep, merge ep.) She went on two rewards that involved family and nothing was shown of either of them. Perhaps hers is an edit designed to motivate viewers to vote for her to win the America's Choice $100,000 prize. She's one of MB's favorites who most deserved to face the Jury and didn't, or faces the Jury and loses.
Cirie has had a ton of confessionals, a ton of airtime, but what connections does she have to the jury as presently formed? Few to none. Her best connections are with the people still in the game, and pretty much have been the whole way through. She's had very little Secondhand Visibility (meaning comments from other people about her): the last time she even felt threatened was way back post-swap, when Joel was talking about targeting the weak, and she knew she was in that grouping.
In addition, during the Jellyfish Lake reward, she was shown/heard talking about what she'd gotten from the experience, and how she wasn't going to be afraid of every little thing anymore.
What about the Jury? Cirie's jury connections weren't deemed vital to be shown. Now that could be because it's all about how Parvati loses the votes that should have been hers, and Cirie wins them, or it could be because Cirie doesn't make it to the end. What we have seen all season is her connection to Amanda and Parvati, and lately to Natalie. Those women are still in the game and they can't all end up on the jury, voting for her. Then again, maybe two of them can.
It's just that Cirie's actions have been shown to us, and only in the most recent episode did we see other people obviously in the know that the plans were Cirie's and that she was the one directing how the Erik dupe would happen. A lot of people are rooting for Cirie, and I think that's exactly what MB wanted to achieve. Her connection to others has been perfunctory; it's her connection to the viewer that was vital. She most deserved to face the Jury and didn't. And if I'm wrong, so be it.
.
CONCLUSION
The opportunity to establish ties between Cirie and people who are on the jury was let slip by time and again. Why is she now being shown in conjunction with Natalie? Is she a vote for Natalie, because she feels betrayed by Amanda and Parvati? Is she one of many votes for Natalie, or at least 4, maybe? I can find reasons for each of them to win or to lose. There are "obvious" votes, lucky votes, and votes provided via someone who was trying to help and ends up causing others not to vote for that person.
vidcap by Warrior
The jury presentation is key. It has always been and always will be. Know your jury and present your game in a way that will appeal to them. Know which votes are lost causes and don't throw your whole gameplan away on trying to convert a lost cause to your side. As a rule, don't apologize for playing the game. It IS a game, even if it is for a million dollars.
I would love to see a polling of the full complement of 20 players, even those not on the jury. The other players would have had the benefit of watching the show together with their experience in the game. Jeff has often informally polled the group, asking for a show of hands, but I'd like to see the results tabulated, with reasons given. It's about as likely as a Natalie win, but you never know...
Thanks for reading. Enjoy the finale, whomever you may be rooting for.
* * *
Are you also watching American Idol? Check out the AI forum here.
Check out SirLinksalot: Survivor Micronesia for more recaps & articles on this show
